You know all their theories, and you must apply them now, I take it, according to circumstances and your need.

[44] But," he added, "there is one lesson that I would fain impress on you, and it is the greatest of them all.
Observe the sacrifices and pay heed to the omens; when they are against you, never risk your army or yourself, for you must remember that men undertake enterprises on the strength of probability alone and without any real knowledge as to what will bring them happiness.

[45] You may learn this from all life and all history.

How often have cities allowed themselves to be persuaded into war, and that by advisers who were thought the wisest of men, and then been utterly destroyed by those whom they attacked! How often have statesmen helped to raise a city or a leader to power, and then suffered the worst at the hands of those whom they exalted! And many who could have treated others as friends and equals, giving and receiving kindnesses, have chosen to use them as slaves, and then paid the penalty at their hands; and many, not content to enjoy their own share of good, have been swept on by the craving to master all, and thereby lost everything that they once possessed; and many have won the very wealth they prayed for and through it have found destruction.

[46] So little does human wisdom know how to choose the best, helpless as a man who could but draw lots to see what he should do.