A new winter campaign was almost a certainty, and yet the Germans insisted that though mistakes occurred in the term fixed, this was not so respecting the ultimate effect of the U-boats and that England would collapse.

The U-boat warfare had achieved this amount of success, that the Western front remained intact, though it would otherwise have fallen.
The military situation underwent a change in the autumn.

The end of the war in the East was within sight, and the possibility of being able to fling the enormous masses of troops from the East into the line in the West, and at last break through there, greatly improved the situation.
It was not on the sea that the U-boat campaign had brought about a decision, but it enabled a final decision on land to be made; such was the new military opinion.

Paris and Calais could not be taken.
In these different phases of military hopes and expectation we floated like a boat on a stormy sea.

In order to land in the haven of peace, we needed a military wave to carry us nearer to the land; then only could we unfurl the sail of understanding that would help us to reach the saving shores.