Peace must, therefore, unless it finally has to be proposed by the enemy, be secured in the course of this year, which means that we must enforce it.
The military situation is unfavourable owing to the impending Anglo-French offensive, which, it is presumed, will open with great force, as in the case of the last offensive on the Somme.

To meet the attack, troops will have to be withdrawn from other fronts.

Consequently, an offensive against Russia with intent to bring that enemy to his knees, which perhaps a year ago would have been possible, can no longer be reckoned on.
If, therefore, the possibility of enforcing a decision in the East becomes less and less, an effort must be made to bring it about in the West, and to do it at a time when the unrestricted U-boat warfare would affect the coming Anglo-French offensive by impeding the transport of troops and munitions sailing under a neutral flag.
In estimating the effect on England of the unrestricted U-boat warfare, there will be not only the question of hindering the transport of provisions, but also of curtailing the traffic to such a degree as would render it impossible for the English to continue the war.

In Italy and in France this will be felt no less severely.

The neutrals, too, will be made to suffer, which, however, might serve as a pretext to bring about peace.
America will hardly push matters further than breaking off diplomatic relations; we need not, therefore, count for certain on a war with the United States.
It must not be overlooked that the United States--as was the case in regard to Mexico--are not well prepared for war, that their one anxiety is Japan.