As early as August, 1914, this was clearly the conviction that underlay all others in the President's interpretation of events.
His other basic idea was that militarism should come to an end "on land and sea"; this could mean nothing except that Germany was expected to abandon its army and that Great Britain was to abandon its navy.
_From Edward M.House_ 115 East 53rd Street, New York City.
January 4th, 1915.
DEAR PAGE: I believe the Dual Alliance is thoroughly ready for peace and I believe they would be willing to agree upon terms England would accept provided Russia and France could be satisfied.
They would, in my opinion, evacuate both Belgium and France and indemnify the former, and they would, I think, be willing to begin negotiations upon a basis looking to permanent peace.
It would surprise me if the Germans did not come out in the open soon and declare that they have always been for peace, that they are for peace now, and that they are willing to enter into a compact which would insure peace for all time; that they have been misrepresented and maligned and that they leave the entire responsibility for the continuation of the war with the Allies.
If they should do this, it would create a profound impression, and if it was not met with sympathy by the Allies, the neutral sentiment, which is now almost wholly against the Germans, would veer toward them.
Will you not convey this thought to Sir Edward and let me know what he says?
The President is willing and anxious for me to go to England and Germany as soon as there is anything tangible to go on, and whenever my presence will be welcome.

The Germans have already indicated this feeling but I have not been able to get from Spring Rice any expression from his Government.
As I told you before, the President does not wish to offend the sensibilities of any one by premature action, but he is, of course, enormously interested in initiating at least tentative conversations.
Will you not advise me in regard to this?
Faithfully yours, E.M.

HOUSE.
_From Edward M.House_ 115 East 53rd Street, New York City.
January 18, 1915.
DEAR PAGE: The President has sent me a copy of your confidential dispatch No.
1474, January 15th.
The reason you had no information in regard to what General French mentioned was because no one knew of it outside of the President and myself and there was no safe way to inform you.
As a matter of fact, there has been no direct proposal made by anybody.

I have had repeated informal talks with the different ambassadors and I have had direct communication with Zimmermann, which has led the President and me to believe that peace conversations may be now initiated in an unofficial way.
This is the purpose of my going over on the _Lusitania_, January 30th.

When I reach London I will be guided by circumstances as to whether I shall go next to France or Germany.
The President and I find that we are going around in a circle in dealing with the representatives in Washington, and he thinks it advisable and necessary to reach the principals direct.