[The Economic Consequences of the Peace by John Maynard Keynes]@TWC D-Link bookThe Economic Consequences of the Peace CHAPTER VI 26/31
280.) [146] Including the _Darlehenskassenscheine_ somewhat more. [147] Similarly in Austria prices ought to be between twenty and thirty times their former level. [148] One of the moat striking and symptomatic difficulties which faced the Allied authorities in their administration of the occupied areas of Germany during the Armistice arose out of the fact that even when they brought food into the country the inhabitants could not afford to pay its cost price. [149] Theoretically an unduly low level of home prices should stimulate exports and so cure itself.
But in Germany, and still more in Poland and Austria, there is little or nothing to export.
There must be imports _before_ there can be exports. [150] Allowing for the diminished value of gold, the exchange value of the franc should be less than 40 per cent of its previous value, instead of the actual figure of about 60 per cent, if the fall were proportional to the increase in the volume of the currency. [151] How very far from equilibrium France's international exchange now is can be seen from the following table: Excess of Monthly Imports Exports Imports Average $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 1913 140,355 114,670 25,685 1914 106,705 81,145 25,560 1918 331,915 69,055 262,860 Jan.-Mar.
1919 387,140 66,670 320,470 Apr.-June 1919 421,410 83,895 337,515 July 1919 467,565 123,675 343,890 These figures have been converted, at approximately par rates, but this is roughly compensated by the fact that the trade of 1918 and 1919 has been valued at 1917 official rates.
French imports cannot possibly continue at anything approaching these figures, and the semblance of prosperity based on such a state of affairs is spurious. [152] The figures for Italy are as follows: Excess of Monthly Imports Exports Imports Average $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 1913 60,760 41,860 18,900 1914 48,720 36,840 11,880 1918 235,025 41,390 193,635 Jan.-Mar.
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