[The Economic Consequences of the Peace by John Maynard Keynes]@TWC D-Link book
The Economic Consequences of the Peace

CHAPTER V
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Industrially, the loot has been serious and for the moment paralyzing; but the actual money cost of replacing machinery mounts up slowly, and a few tens of millions would have covered the value of every machine of every possible description that Belgium ever possessed.

Besides, the cold statistician must not overlook the fact that the Belgian people possess the instinct of individual self-protection unusually well developed; and the great mass of German bank-notes[81] held in the country at the date of the Armistice, shows that certain classes of them at least found a way, in spite of all the severities and barbarities of German rule, to profit at the expense of the invader.

Belgian claims against Germany such as I have seen, amounting to a sum in excess of the total estimated pre-war wealth of the whole country, are simply irresponsible.[82] It will help to guide our ideas to quote the official survey of Belgian wealth, published in 1913 by the Finance Ministry of Belgium, which was as follows: Land $1,320,000,000 Buildings 1,175,000,000 Personal wealth 2,725,000,000 Cash 85,000,000 Furniture, etc 600,000,000 -- ------------ $5,905,000,000 This total yields an average of $780 per inhabitant, which Dr.Stamp, the highest authority on the subject, is disposed to consider as _prima facie_ too low (though he does not accept certain much higher estimates lately current), the corresponding wealth per head (to take Belgium's immediate neighbors) being $835 for Holland, $1,220 for Germany, and $1,515 for France.[83] A total of $7,500,000,000, giving an average of about $1,000 per head, would, however, be fairly liberal.

The official estimate of land and buildings is likely to be more accurate than the rest.

On the other hand, allowance has to be made for the increased costs of construction.
Having regard to all these considerations, I do not put the money value of the actual _physical_ loss of Belgian property by destruction and loot above $750,000,000 _as a maximum_, and while I hesitate to put yet lower an estimate which differs so widely from those generally current, I shall be surprised if it proves possible to substantiate claims even to this amount.


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