[The Economic Consequences of the Peace by John Maynard Keynes]@TWC D-Link bookThe Economic Consequences of the Peace CHAPTER V 44/118
As from May 1, 1921, interest is to be debited to Germany on such part of her outstanding debt as has not been covered by payment in cash or kind or by the issue of bonds as above,[114] and "the rate of interest shall be 5 per cent unless the Commission shall determine at some future time that circumstances justify a variation of this rate." That is to say, the capital sum of indebtedness is rolling up all the time at compound interest.
The effect of this provision towards increasing the burden is, on the assumption that Germany cannot pay very large sums at first, enormous.
At 5 per cent compound interest a capital sum doubles itself in fifteen years.
On the assumption that Germany cannot pay more than $750,000,000 annually until 1936 (_i.e._ 5 per cent interest on $15,000,000,000) the $25,000,000,000 on which interest is deferred will have risen to $50,000,000,000, carrying an annual interest charge of $2,500,000,000.
That is to say, even if Germany pays $750,000,000 annually up to 1936, she will nevertheless owe us at that date more than half as much again as she does now ($65,000,000,000 as compared with $40,000,000,000).
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