[The Economic Consequences of the Peace by John Maynard Keynes]@TWC D-Link book
The Economic Consequences of the Peace

CHAPTER V
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The losses of Serbia, although from a human point of view her sufferings were the greatest of all,[95] are not measured _pecuniarily_ by very great figures, on account of her low economic development.

Dr.Stamp (_loc.

cit._) quotes an estimate by the Italian statistician Maroi, which puts the national wealth of Serbia at $2,400,000,000 or $525 per head,[96] and the greater part of this would be represented by land which has sustained no permanent damage.[97] In view of the very inadequate data for guessing at more than the _general magnitude_ of the legitimate claims of this group of countries, I prefer to make one guess rather than several and to put the figure for the whole group at the round sum of $1,250,000,000.
We are finally left with the following-- Belgium $ 2,500,000,000[98] France 4,000,000,000 Great Britain 2,850,000,000 Other Allies 1,250,000,000 -- ------------- Total $10,600,000,000 I need not impress on the reader that there is much guesswork in the above, and the figure for France in particular is likely to be criticized.

But I feel some confidence that the _general magnitude_, as distinct from the precise figures, is not hopelessly erroneous; and this may be expressed by the statement that a claim against Germany, based on the interpretation of the pre-Armistice engagements of the Allied Powers which is adopted above, would assuredly be found to exceed $8,000,000,000 and to fall short of $15,000,000,000.
This is the amount of the claim which we were entitled to present to the enemy.

For reasons which will appear more fully later on, I believe that it would have been a wise and just act to have asked the German Government at the Peace Negotiations to agree to a sum of $10,000,000,000 in final settlement, without further examination of particulars.


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