It deals with principles.

Such, for example, was the foresight of Burke when he dogmatically foretold that the French Constitution of 1791 could not stand.[108] Guessing is at best based on acute observation of the current events of the day, that is of things which are in their nature uncertain.

On January 29, 1848, Tocqueville analysed the condition of French society, and in the Chamber of Deputies foretold the approach of revolution.
On February 21, 1848, Girardin said that the monarchy of July would not last three days longer.

February 24 verified the insight and foresight of the statesman, and proved that the journalist was an acute observer.
The difference is worth consideration.

Tocqueville's prophecy would in all probability have been substantially realised had Louis Philippe shown as much energy in 1848 as in 1832, and had the Orleanist dynasty reigned till after his death.