Mercier replied that he did not believe that the North would declare war, and so it would be a step toward settlement.

To this Lyons took positive exception[398].

Lyons' report of this conversation was written on November 8, a date which was soon to stand out as that on which occurred an event more immediately threatening to British-American relations than any other during the Civil War.
The battle of Bull Run had left on British minds an impression of Northern incapacity in war--even a doubt of Northern courage and determination.

On August 19 the Declaration of Paris negotiation, a favourable result from which was eagerly desired by Russell, had failed, as he well knew when he attached to the convention that explanatory statement limiting its action in point of time.

In the end Russell felt that Britain had just escaped a "trap." Two weeks after this Russell learned of the arrest of Mure, and soon of the demand for Bunch's recall, finally and formally made by Adams on November 21.