On his part Mercier told Seward that in his opinion there was but one possible outcome in America--separation--and that he had advised Thouvenel that the true policy of England and France was to recognize the South and "bring about a peaceful separation." Lyons' comment to Russell is that Seward had certainly taken a "high" tone--evident justification of Lyons' previously expressed opinion.

Seward had been very eager to learn whether England knew of Thouvenel's instruction, to which Mercier replied "no," and was now anxious that Russell should not reveal to Adams that Lyons had known the contents before delivery to Seward--a caution with which Lyons was very content[391].
Lyons' first report of Mercier's ideas had been received in London at a rather critical moment.

On October 17, just after Adams' complaint about Bunch and Russell's answer, while waiting to see whether Seward would magnify that incident into a cause of rupture, and four days before Bunch's "unsatisfactory explanation" had been received, Russell wrote to Palmerston: "There is much good sense in Mercier's observations.
But we must wait.

I am persuaded that if we do anything, it must be on a grand scale.

It will not do for England and France to break a blockade for the sake of getting cotton.