If that occurred cotton would be burned and destroyed and cotton supply to Europe would be not merely a matter of temporary interruption, but one of long-continued dearth with no certainty of early resumption.

Fearing the growth in England, especially, of an intention to intervene, Seward threatened a Northern appeal to the slaves, thinking of the threat not so much in terms of an uncivilized and horrible war as in terms of the material interests of Great Britain.

In brief, considering foreign attitude and action in its relation to Northern advantage--to the winning of the war--he would use emancipation as a threat of servile insurrection, but did not desire emancipation itself for fear it would cause that very intervention which it was his object to prevent.
His instructions are wholly in line with this policy.

In February, 1862, the Confiscation Bill had been introduced in Congress.

In April, Mercier's trip to Richmond[897] had caused much speculation and started many rumours in London of plans of mediation[898].