The refusal, if refusal there was, would come from the North, who would be unwilling to give up the principle for which they have been fighting so long as they had a reasonable expectation that by going on fighting they could carry their point.

The condition of things therefore which would be favourable to an offer of mediation would be great success of the South against the North.

That state of things seemed ten days ago to be approaching.

Its advance has been lately checked, but we do not yet know the real course of recent events, and still less can we foresee what is about to follow.

Ten days or a fortnight more may throw a clearer light upon future prospects.
"As regards possible resentment on the part of the Northerns following upon an acknowledgment of the Independence of the South, it is quite true that we should have less to care about that resentment in the spring when communication with Canada was open, and when our naval force could more easily operate upon the American coast, than in winter when we are cut off from Canada and the American coast is not so safe.
"But if the acknowledgment were made at one and the same time by England, France and some other Powers, the Yankees would probably not seek a quarrel with us alone, and would not like one against a European Confederation.