From all the sources of information at hand, I grew most strongly to believe that a further continuation of the struggle would be a very bad thing for Japan, and an even worse thing for Russia.

Japan was already suffering terribly from the drain upon her men, and especially upon her resources, and had nothing further to gain from continuance of the struggle; its continuance meant to her more loss than gain, even if she were victorious.

Russia, in spite of her gigantic strength, was, in my judgment, apt to lose even more than she had already lost if the struggle continued.

I deemed it probable that she would no more be able successfully to defend Eastern Siberia and Northern Manchuria than she had been able to defend Southern Manchuria and Korea.

If the war went on, I thought it, on the whole, likely that Russia would be driven west of Lake Baikal.